Weather & Forecasting · Projected milestone

Hour-ahead tornado warnings

Estimated year~2033

45% by 2038 · including earlier years

The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.

Tornado warnings come from forecasts an hour before a storm spins up, rather than from radar spotting rotation 10 to 15 minutes ahead.

What the forecast means

Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)

Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.

This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.

No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.

Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.