Cybersecurity & Cryptography · Projected milestone

Quantum computer breaks RSA

Estimated year~2035

40% by 2040 · including earlier years

The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.

A fault-tolerant quantum computer factors a 2048-bit RSA key, ending the safety of old public-key encryption.

What the forecast means

Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)

Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.

This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.

No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.

Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.