Computing · Projected milestone
Error-corrected quantum computer
65% by 2033 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
Hundreds of logical qubits execute long algorithms with quantified error correction and error budgets.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: demonstration
unknown
Hundreds of functioning logical qubits with long-depth computation.
Completion criteria: Independent reproduction or audited execution demonstrates at least 200 logical qubits and 100 million logical operations, publishing code assumptions, error rates and correctness checks. Physical-qubit count or cooling capacity alone does not qualify.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
- Information theoryRecorded · 1948requires
- Stored-program computerRecorded · 1948requires
- Error-correcting codesRecorded · 1950enables
- Dilution refrigeratorRecorded · 1964enables
- MicroprocessorRecorded · 1971requires
- Laser cooling of atomsRecorded · 1978enables
- Shor's factoring algorithmRecorded · 1994enables
- First quantum logic gateRecorded · 1995enables
- Quantum supremacy demoRecorded · 2019enables
- First useful quantum advantageForecast · ~2028enables
Led to
- Working quantum repeater linksForecast · ~2032enables
- AI-discovered quantum algorithmsForecast · ~2034enables
- Qubit chips from standard fabsForecast · ~2034enables
- Quantum computer breaks RSAForecast · ~2035enables
- Thousands of logical qubitsForecast · ~2035enables
- Quantum chemistry advantageForecast · ~2037enables
- Quantum internet backboneForecast · ~2042enables
- Quantum materials by designForecast · ~2042enables
- Million-qubit quantum computersForecast · ~2043enables
- Post-quantum migration completeForecast · ~2046enables
Sources & evidence
- IBM goes big to keep quantum computers cold 2026-08-20
IBM reports connected cryogenic modules and retains a 2029 Starling target. Processor integration was still a next step; cooling infrastructure does not establish hundreds of fault-tolerant logical qubits.
- IBM Quantum 2030 technology roadmap 2026-03
IBM describes targets including Starling in 2029 and larger logical-qubit systems thereafter. They are engineering plans subject to change, not achieved results.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18