Aerospace · Projected milestone
Multi-mission lunar base
55% by 2040 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
A lunar surface outpost is reused by at least two separate crew expeditions, supports at least 180 cumulative crew-days over two years, and keeps essential infrastructure operational between visits.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: sustained capability demonstration
Lunar habitation systems are in development; no multi-mission surface base demonstrated
Timing window: 2031–2042. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Completion criteria: A lunar surface outpost is reused by at least two separate crew expeditions, supports at least 180 cumulative crew-days over two years, and keeps essential infrastructure operational between visits. A forecast, policy target or prototype outside this definition does not resolve it.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
- Mars rehearsal on the MoonForecast · ~2037enables
- Far-side science parkForecast · ~2040requires
- Humans on MarsForecast · ~2042enables
- Sunlight beamed into lunar cratersForecast · ~2042enables
- Surgery on the MoonForecast · ~2042enables
- Augmented astronautsForecast · ~2045enables
- Regolith landing pad on the MoonForecast · ~2045enables
- Lunar propellant depotsForecast · ~2046enables
- Lunar internet serviceForecast · ~2047enables
- Lunar tourist staysForecast · ~2048enables
- Permanent Mars baseForecast · ~2049enables
- Lava-tube basesForecast · ~2050enables
- Giant telescope on the MoonForecast · ~2055enables
- Lunar townsForecast · ~2055enables
- Lunar resource processingForecast · ~2060enables
- Map of the cosmic dark agesForecast · ~2072requires
- Lunar SETI observatoryForecast · ~2075enables
- Robot-built settlementsForecast · ~2083requires
- Lunar life-support spare-part independenceForecast · ~2086scales with
Sources & evidence
- NASA national space policy initiatives and Moon Base phases 2026-03-24
NASA’s March 2026 announcement presents phased Moon-base development, from early activity toward heavier infrastructure. It does not establish continuous occupation or operational water extraction.
- NASA Moon Base frequently asked questions
NASA’s Moon Base FAQ explains the base concept and phased approach. A durable foothold, continuous crewing and local resource production remain separate capabilities.
Original node: Claude. Definition and evidence revision: Astra. Cited researchers and institutions retain achievement credit.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18