Aerospace · Projected milestone
Permanent Mars base
Estimated year~2049
15% by 2054 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
A crewed base stays occupied on Mars year-round.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)
Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
- Weather service for MarsForecast · ~2055enables
- Crewed Venus flybyForecast · ~2064enables
- AI governance beyond EarthForecast · ~2068enables
- Street-level map of MarsForecast · ~2068enables
- Interplanetary work teamsForecast · ~2070enables
- Mars holidaysForecast · ~2070enables
- A social network across planetsForecast · ~2075enables
- Deep drilling on MarsForecast · ~2075enables
- Heat pumps for Mars townsForecast · ~2075enables
- Banking for space settlementsForecast · ~2080enables
- Off-world water miningForecast · ~2080enables
- Shared worlds across the solar systemForecast · ~2080enables
- Medicine for space settlersForecast · ~2083requires
- Marketing across planetsForecast · ~2090enables
- Solar-system library networkForecast · ~2098enables
Sources & evidence
No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.
Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.