AI Safety & Governance · Projected milestone

AI catastrophe insurance pool

Estimated year~2041

40% by 2046 · including earlier years

The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.

Frontier labs fund a shared insurance pool, priced by audited risk, to cover large AI accidents.

What the forecast means

Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)

Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.

This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.

No connections of this kind are recorded.

No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.

Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.