Semiconductors & Chipmaking · Projected milestone
AI-invented transistor type
45% by 2042 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
AI scientists design and prove a new kind of switching device that beats the best stacked silicon transistors in fabs.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: demonstration
unknown
An AI-origin novel switching concept validated in fabricated devices.
Completion criteria: Independent fabricated-device measurements demonstrate the claimed power/performance/area or manufacturability advantage, with yield and operating conditions disclosed. A simulated device or AI-generated material candidate alone is not enough.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
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Sources & evidence
- Cadence expands ChipStack with RTL generation and early PPA optimization 2026-09-22
Cadence announces specification-to-RTL generation and verification/optimization with early customer evaluation. Vendor-reported block-level quality is not evidence that whole-chip physical validation and all signoff are solved.
- Sharing AI progress in mathematics 2026-10-06
OpenAI shares research-level mathematical results, proof artifacts and evaluation details; the post was updated October 15. The claims still need ordinary mathematical scrutiny. These results support capability beyond benchmark scores, not mastery of every scientific field.
- Intel Q2 2026 results, SEC Form 8-K attachment 2026-07-23
Intel reports high-volume manufacturing of a subset of Core Ultra Series 3 Panther Lake using ASML EXE High-NA EUV. Manufacturing is not itself proof that the relevant retail products have shipped.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18