Robotics & Automation · Projected milestone
Lights-out car factory
45% by 2037 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
A full car assembly plant runs with no line workers, with robots and humanoids doing every job including final assembly.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: deployment
unknown
Complete final-assembly task coverage, including common exceptions.
Completion criteria: One customer plant documents at least three months of normal mixed production, final-assembly coverage, interventions and throughput. Off-line maintenance and supervisory staff are allowed but must be disclosed; a heavily automated body shop is insufficient.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
No connections of this kind are recorded.
Sources & evidence
- BMW Group advances Physical AI with Figure 03 in Spartanburg 2026-06-25
BMW describes the completed Figure 02 production pilot and a new Figure 03 logistics use case. A pilot doing productive work is strong capability evidence; the announcement does not establish broad routine commercial staffing.
- What work can robots do? 2026-09-30
Anthropic models robot exposure across physical tasks, separating limited-setting capability from cost-competitive automation. Its index is an assessment rather than a census of deployed robots or a forecast that hardware progress stops.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18