Robotics & Automation · Projected milestone
Useful humanoid for $10,000
55% by 2034 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
A humanoid that does real chores and light factory work sells for about the price of a small used car.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: deployment
partially-demonstrated
Useful individual humanoid tasks exist; the affordable autonomous package is not established.
Completion criteria: Independent buyers can purchase a working complete system with required compute, battery and first-year mandatory software below the price cap; it passes a disclosed multi-task test in unfamiliar sites with intervention counted. A body-only price or remote-controlled performance does not count.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
Sources & evidence
- Helix 2.5: Zero-shot generalization across 30 homes 2026-09-17
Figure reports three trained behaviors tested in thirty unseen homes without home-specific tuning, with aggregate whole-task success increasing from 9% to 56%. This is meaningful transfer and still falls short of dependable general household autonomy.
- What work can robots do? 2026-09-30
Anthropic models robot exposure across physical tasks, separating limited-setting capability from cost-competitive automation. Its index is an assessment rather than a census of deployed robots or a forecast that hardware progress stops.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18