Public Health & Epidemiology · Projected milestone

New HIV infections nearly stopped

Estimated year~2040

30% by 2045 · including earlier years

The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.

Twice-yearly or yearly prevention jabs and long-acting treatment cut new HIV infections worldwide by more than 90%.

What the forecast means

Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)

Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.

This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.

No connections of this kind are recorded.

No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.

Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.