Neuroscience & Mental Health · Projected milestone
Presymptomatic Alzheimer’s progression delayed
55% by 2042 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
A randomized trial in initially cognitively unimpaired biomarker-positive participants reports at least 30% relative reduction in progression to clinically meaningful cognitive impairment over at least four years, with prespecified functional endpoints and full safety reporting.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: clinical validation
Biomarkers and symptomatic disease-slowing treatments exist; qualifying presymptomatic clinical benefit is unresolved
Timing window: 2029–2042. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Completion criteria: A randomized trial in initially cognitively unimpaired biomarker-positive participants reports at least 30% relative reduction in progression to clinically meaningful cognitive impairment over at least four years, with prespecified functional endpoints and full safety reporting. A forecast, policy target or prototype outside this definition does not resolve it.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
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Sources & evidence
- FDA first Alzheimer's blood-test clearance 2025-05-16
FDA’s 2025 clearance announcement describes an Alzheimer blood test used to aid diagnosis in symptomatic patients. It explicitly does not establish asymptomatic population screening, prevention or cure.
- Eisai description of the AHEAD 3-45 study
Eisai describes the AHEAD 3-45 program studying early intervention before clinical symptoms. A prevention study’s existence is not evidence of a successful clinical endpoint.
Original node: Claude. Definition and evidence revision: Astra. Cited researchers and institutions retain achievement credit.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18