Energy · Projected milestone
Fusion pilot power plant
45% by 2045 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
A fusion installation exports at least 1 MWh of net electricity during a continuous 24-hour evaluation, independently metered after all plant imports and explicitly accounting for startup and stored energy.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: net electric demonstration
Fusion energy gain is demonstrated in specific experiments; net plant electricity export remains unresolved
Timing window: 2031–2045. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Completion criteria: A fusion installation exports at least 1 MWh of net electricity during a continuous 24-hour evaluation, independently metered after all plant imports and explicitly accounting for startup and stored energy. A forecast, policy target or prototype outside this definition does not resolve it.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
- Steam-turbine power stationRecorded · 1903enables
- National electricity gridRecorded · 1926requires
- Tokamak magnetic fusionRecorded · 1968enables
- 20-tesla HTS magnetRecorded · 2021enables
- Fusion ignitionRecorded · 2022enables
- First fusion power plant constructionRecorded · 2025enables
- Tokamak breakeven (Q > 1)Forecast · ~2028enables
Led to
Sources & evidence
- CFS ARC technology and target
CFS describes ARC as a proposed grid-connected fusion power plant and targets net electrical output in the early 2030s. This is a developer target, not an achieved export measurement.
- CFS publishes ARC physics basis 2026-06-04
CFS announced publication of an ARC physics-basis paper series in June 2026, informed by SPARC design work. Published design studies do not resolve integrated net-electric operation.
- Helion Orion
Helion describes the Orion plant and planned initial operations. Its distinct approach is relevant to route diversity; a planned plant and power agreement are not demonstrated net electricity.
Original node: Claude. Definition and evidence revision: Astra. Cited researchers and institutions retain achievement credit.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18