Computing · Projected milestone
Auditable multi-provider compute exchange
50% by 2040 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
An exchange routes paid compute jobs across three independently owned providers using interoperable execution-environment attestations and usage receipts, with published dispute handling and twelve months of third-party audit.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: institutional deployment
Components exist; the defined interoperable service has not been established by cited sources.
Timing window: 2028–2040. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Completion criteria: An exchange routes paid compute jobs across three independently owned providers using interoperable execution-environment attestations and usage receipts, with published dispute handling and twelve months of third-party audit. Resolve only from inspectable deployments and independent operating evidence meeting every criterion.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
Sources & evidence
- IETF RFC 9334: Remote Attestation Procedures Architecture 2023-01
Defines evidence, verifier and relying-party roles for attesting system state. It does not prove arbitrary computations correct or prices fair.
- IEA: Key Questions on Energy and AI (2026) 2026
Updated demand projection: 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030. Flexible loads and batteries can ease local constraints; this is conditional.
Astra projection; cited institutions retain credit for foundational work.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18