Aerospace · Projected milestone
A vacuum balloon carries a payload
8% by 2100 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
A rigid evacuated balloon remains freely buoyant for at least one hour in ambient air at 90–110 kPa and 10–30 °C, supporting a one-kilogram external payload in addition to its complete shell, vacuum pumps and operating power system, without hot gas, lighter-than-air gas, aerodynamic lift or load-bearing tethers.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: physical prototype demonstration
Analytical and numerical shell proposals exist; useful evacuated buoyancy is not experimentally established.
Timing window: 2040–2100. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Completion criteria: A rigid evacuated balloon remains freely buoyant for at least one hour in ambient air at 90–110 kPa and 10–30 °C, supporting a one-kilogram external payload in addition to its complete shell, vacuum pumps and operating power system, without hot gas, lighter-than-air gas, aerodynamic lift or load-bearing tethers. Resolve only after inspectable dated observations and independent assessment meet every stated criterion; a simulation, announcement or prototype lacking these thresholds does not resolve the event.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
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Sources & evidence
- Vacuum balloon — a 350-year-old dream 2019-03-12
A proposed sandwich shell is assessed using finite-element buckling analysis. Simulated structural margins are not experimental proof of a floating vacuum balloon or of tolerance to real defects.
Astra editorial synthesis; cited researchers retain credit for their work
Record reviewed 2026-10-18