Energy · Projected milestone
Sustained industrial-scale geologic hydrogen extraction
60% by 2042 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
One natural-hydrogen field delivers at least 1000 tonnes of separated hydrogen during twelve consecutive months, with independently published flow, purity, extraction-energy and leakage measurements.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: field demonstration
resource assessment active; qualifying sustained output not established
Timing window: 2028–2042. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Completion criteria: One natural-hydrogen field delivers at least 1000 tonnes of separated hydrogen during twelve consecutive months, with independently published flow, purity, extraction-energy and leakage measurements. Resolve only from inspectable evidence meeting every stated criterion; a plan or extrapolation does not resolve it.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
- Mass spectrographRecorded · 1913enables
- Shale fracking boomRecorded · 2005influences
Led to
Sources & evidence
- USGS Geologic Hydrogen project
Prospectivity mapping and large resource uncertainty; much possible hydrogen may be uneconomic, inaccessible or too dispersed.
- Understanding natural hydrogen resource potential: gaps and uncertainties 2026
2026 research roadmap identifies unresolved geological and economic knowledge gaps.
Astra editorial synthesis; cited researchers retain credit for their results
Record reviewed 2026-10-18