Aerospace · Projected milestone
Fully reusable heavy launch
Estimated year~2028
70% by 2033 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
Super-heavy rockets that recover both stages cut the cost to orbit by another order of magnitude.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)
Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
- Crewed lunar returnForecast · ~2029enables
- Space-based solar powerForecast · ~2031enables
- Paid trip around the MoonForecast · ~2034enables
- Space-based missile defenceForecast · ~2035enables
- Orbital data centresForecast · ~2038enables
- Orbital tourism at scaleForecast · ~2040enables
- Habitable Worlds Observatory launchForecast · ~2041enables
- Humans on MarsForecast · ~2042enables
- Operational asteroid defenceForecast · ~2042enables
- Sunlight beamed into lunar cratersForecast · ~2042requires
- Uranus orbiter and probeForecast · ~2045enables
- Lunar propellant depotsForecast · ~2046enables
- Asteroid resource miningForecast · ~2048enables
- Orbital spaceportsForecast · ~2052requires
- Artificial-gravity stationForecast · ~2058requires
- Probes to the Oort cloudForecast · ~2060enables
- Rocket point-to-point travelForecast · ~2060enables
- Space freight terminalsForecast · ~2063requires
- Orbital freight networkForecast · ~2080enables
- Orbital chemical plantsForecast · ~2087requires
- Orbital ringForecast · ~2088requires
- Orbital megastructuresForecast · ~2094requires
- Space elevatorForecast · ~2095enables
- Habitat for a century-long voyageForecast · ~2096requires
- Generation-ship prototypesForecast · ~2099requires
Sources & evidence
No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.
Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.